Independent analysis of the geopolitical, security, economic and technological forces reshaping the international environment. Every product follows our signature: Fact → Assessment → Forecast → Decision.
Global developments • Geopolitical risk • Security • Economics • Humanitarian affairs. Executive edition every Monday.
This week: Cameroon elite manoeuvres ahead of transition scenarios; Iran–US signalling and Red Sea exposure; Sahel mining deals and Russian networks; Indo-Pacific naval tempo; critical-minerals prices.
Subscribe to receive the full edition →Fact: prolonged incumbency, elite factionalism, Anglophone and Far North insecurity, fiscal strain.
AHOMF Assessment: succession — not election arithmetic — is the central risk. Watch party-military-business alignments and parallel security networks.
Forecast: three scenarios — managed continuity, contested succession, fragmented authority — with distinct business-continuity implications.
Fact: paramilitary-commercial networks exchange security provision for mining concessions in CAR, Mali, Burkina Faso.
AHOMF Assessment: profit funds presence; presence protects profit. This is resource-statecraft, not mere mercenary activity.
Forecast: expansion toward gold corridors and coastal access; Western and Gulf counter-offers intensify.
Fact: nuclear threshold posture, proxy calibration, maritime signalling in Hormuz and the Red Sea.
AHOMF Assessment: both sides prefer coercive bargaining to war, but miscalculation pathways multiply around elections and energy shocks.
Forecast: escalation ladder with off-ramps; energy and shipping insurance as transmission belts.
Fact: hypersonic testing, ballistic stockpiling, air-defence saturation from Ukraine to the Gulf to the Pacific.
AHOMF Assessment: offence regains advantage; deterrence now depends on magazine depth and industrial throughput.
Forecast: procurement surge, tech-transfer controls, and new strike doctrines — including drone-missile teaming.
Political • Security • Economic • Humanitarian • Investment risk, with 6–24 month perspectives.
