Every Weekly Strategic Outlook, Special Intelligence Note and Country Risk Assessment we have published — in one dated, searchable record. Each entry follows our signature: Fact → Assessment → Forecast → Decision.
Global developments across geopolitics, security, economics, energy and humanitarian affairs, with a AHOMF risk dashboard and early-warning indicators for the next 30 days.
Great-power competition, critical minerals and geoeconomic coercion increasingly displace traditional diplomacy as the defining feature of 2026 — overall global risk: High.
Risk: HighIncidents affecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt maritime traffic and insurance costs as NATO reaffirms support for Kyiv and Africa balances instability against investment.
Risk: Very HighUS–Iran talks ease immediate Gulf escalation risk while the Russia–Ukraine war becomes an industrial contest and Africa's overlapping crises deepen.
Risk: HighIran–Hezbollah tensions intensify, Ebola surveillance continues in Central Africa, and competition for critical minerals sharpens as Washington realigns foreign assistance.
Risk: Very HighDeep-dive assessments of single developments — regional confrontations, technology shifts, and the Cameroon succession watch — each with scenarios, probabilities and early-warning indicators.
Constitutional Council renewal, sovereign downgrade to B− and reported bond-market repricing — verified developments, four scenarios through January 2027, regional transmission channels and priority warning indicators.
Risk: Elevated Refinancing & SuccessionCorruption as a vulnerability multiplier: how institutional weakening, privileged access and eroded trust reduce State capacity and compound succession and security risk — with IMF, CONAC, FATF and CPI evidence, a ten-domain risk matrix and four scenarios.
Risk: High National-Security RiskRisk of regime displacement, controlled transition or political alternation — an actor map, five scenarios and nine critical early-warning indicators for the next 6–24 months.
Risk: HighAn eleven-indicator early-warning dashboard finds elevated political uncertainty, not collapse — three indicators on watch, none at elevated level.
Risk: HighThe president's extended absence from public view intensifies succession speculation and elite positioning even as state institutions continue to function.
Risk: HighU.S. intelligence projects the homeland missile threat could grow more than five-fold by 2035 — driven by Chinese and Russian arsenals and a new conventional arms race.
Risk: HighA ceasefire framework reopens the Strait of Hormuz and starts a 60-day negotiation clock — but the core disputes, and Israel's absence from the table, remain unresolved.
Risk: ElevatedPolitical, security and economic risk with scenario probabilities and a 12–24 month outlook.
Succession rivalry, the Anglophone conflict, Boko Haram and fiscal strain converge into three strategic scenarios for 2026–2028.
Risk: HighSahel, Gulf of Guinea and Indo-Pacific country risk briefs are in preparation. Subscribers are notified on release.
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