Executive Summary
The global strategic environment continued to deteriorate this week as multiple crises reinforced one another. The renewed confrontation between the United States and Iran, the persistent war in Ukraine, fragile humanitarian conditions across Africa, and mounting economic uncertainty illustrate a period of heightened geopolitical volatility. The Middle East has again become the principal driver of strategic risk: incidents affecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted maritime traffic, increased insurance costs, and supported higher oil prices. In Europe, Russia and Ukraine maintained intensive long-range strikes while NATO reaffirmed continued support for Kyiv. Across Africa, conflict in eastern DRC, political tensions in Tanzania, and major East African infrastructure and investment initiatives show the coexistence of persistent instability and strategic opportunity.
Global Strategic Risk Dashboard
Nine domains under watch
| Domain | Level |
|---|
| Interstate Conflict | Very High |
| Maritime Security | Very High |
| Humanitarian Crises | Very High |
| Energy Markets | Very High |
| Political Instability in Africa | Very High |
| Terrorism | High |
| Cyber-Threats | High |
| Food Security | High |
| Global Economy | High |
Regional Assessments
Africa, Europe and the Middle East
Africa · Security
One of the world's most complex environments
The Sahel continues to experience persistent attacks by violent extremist organizations despite sustained military operations; Boko Haram and ISWAP remain capable of asymmetric attacks in the Lake Chad Basin. Eastern DRC continues to experience armed violence involving multiple non-state groups, and the Gulf of Guinea remains vulnerable to maritime crime and trafficking, though piracy incidents remain below their historical peak.
Risk: High
Africa · Politics & Economy
Opportunity and risk, side by side
Several countries continue preparing for important electoral cycles amid rising polarization. Despite significant security challenges, Africa continues attracting investment in critical minerals, renewable energy, digital infrastructure, transport corridors and agricultural modernization, as China, the EU, the U.S., Türkiye, Gulf States and India compete for position. Africa remains the continent offering the highest combination of strategic opportunity and political risk.
Risk: Elevated
Europe
A prolonged period of military modernization
Neither Russia nor Ukraine appears capable of a decisive military victory in the short term; both sides emphasize long-range precision strikes, drone warfare, electronic warfare and strategic infrastructure targeting. European defence spending continues to increase as NATO strengthens deterrence along its eastern flank.
Risk: Very High
Middle East
Hormuz remains the chokepoint to watch
Strategic competition involving Iran, Israel, Gulf States and the United States continues to shape regional security. Key concerns include missile proliferation, proxy groups, maritime security, energy infrastructure and nuclear negotiations. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most strategically sensitive maritime chokepoints.
Risk: Very High
Humanitarian, Health & Economic Outlook
Needs continue to outpace resources
Humanitarian needs will continue growing faster than available international resources, driven by displacement, food insecurity, public-health emergencies and climate shocks — Risk: Moderate. The Ebola outbreak in Central Africa continues to require close monitoring alongside cholera and measles resurgence — Risk: Moderate. The international economy operates under elevated uncertainty, with rising defence expenditure, continued competition for critical minerals, and slower growth in development financing — Risk: Moderate.
Early-Warning Indicators
Next 30 days
Continued instability in UkraineWatch
Persistent tensions in the Middle EastWatch
Elevated terrorist activity in parts of AfricaWatch
Increased competition over critical mineralsWatch
Growing attention to missile defence and autonomous weaponsWatch
Continued pressure on humanitarian fundingWatch
Final Executive Conclusion
July 2026 marks a continuation of a long-term transition toward a more contested, fragmented and technologically driven international security environment. Rather than preparing for a return to strategic normality, decision-makers should plan for sustained volatility, strengthen early-warning capabilities, and integrate geopolitical risk assessment into operational and investment decisions. For governments, humanitarian organizations and businesses alike, strategic anticipation is no longer optional — it is becoming an operational necessity.
