Europe
Ukraine continues to define European security; defence spending, industrial mobilization and NATO deterrence remain the principal priorities.
Risk: Very HighMilitary conflicts, technological innovation, economic coercion and competition for strategic resources are reshaping the international system — sustained competition, not temporary crisis, defines 2026.
This week's assessment identifies four dominant dynamics: the Russia–Ukraine war continues transforming modern warfare through large-scale drones, precision missiles, electronic warfare and defence-industrial mobilization; the Middle East remains vulnerable to rapid escalation around maritime security, Iran–Israel tensions and regional deterrence; Africa continues to emerge as the principal theatre of strategic competition for critical minerals while facing persistent security crises and political transitions; and geoeconomic competition increasingly replaces traditional diplomacy as states employ industrial policy, export controls, sanctions and technological leadership to advance national interests. AHOMF assesses that strategic volatility will remain the defining feature of the international environment throughout 2026.
Overall Global Risk: High| Domain | Level |
|---|---|
| Great-Power Competition | Very High |
| Interstate Conflicts (Ukraine & Middle East) | Very High |
| Geoeconomic Competition | High |
| Humanitarian Environment | High |
| Critical Minerals Competition | High |
| Artificial Intelligence in Defence & Industry | Elevated |
Ukraine continues to define European security; defence spending, industrial mobilization and NATO deterrence remain the principal priorities.
Risk: Very HighIran–Israel tensions, maritime security and regional missile capabilities present the greatest escalation risks for global energy markets.
Risk: Very HighThe world's fastest-growing geopolitical theatre: Sahel, Sudan, eastern DRC and Cameroon succession dynamics require close monitoring as mineral competition attracts unprecedented engagement.
Risk: HighChina–U.S. competition continues to shape regional security through naval modernization, technological rivalry and tensions around Taiwan.
Risk: HighNorth American priorities focus on homeland defence, missile defence, Arctic security and strategic competition with China.
Risk: Moderate–HighThe global economy continues transitioning toward a security-driven model: expansion of defence-industrial production, diversification of supply chains, intensifying competition for strategic minerals, and continued importance of LNG and maritime energy security. Economic resilience has become a strategic capability comparable to military readiness. Humanitarian pressures continue to arise from armed conflict, displacement, food insecurity and climate disasters, compounded by declining multilateral development assistance.
The international system has entered a prolonged period of strategic competition in which military capabilities, technological innovation, economic resilience and access to strategic resources collectively determine national influence. AHOMF judges that the defining characteristic of the current era is the emergence of a Geopolitics of Profit, where competition for critical minerals, advanced technologies, industrial capacity, energy security and strategic infrastructure has become a central driver of international relations. Organizations that invest in strategic foresight, intelligence-led planning, resilience and adaptive governance will be best positioned to navigate this increasingly complex environment.