Cameroon is entering one of the most sensitive political periods in its post-independence history. The greatest short-term risk is not popular unrest but elite fragmentation within the ruling system itself.
Three major risk clusters are converging simultaneously: an increasingly visible succession struggle around President Paul Biya; persistent security crises on multiple fronts; and structural economic stagnation aggravated by political uncertainty. Recent constitutional changes concerning succession mechanisms have intensified speculation about the post-Biya era and revealed growing tensions among competing political networks.
At 93 years old, President Paul Biya remains the central pillar of Cameroon's political system. The reintroduction of a vice-presidential position appointed by the president has fundamentally altered succession dynamics. Several power centres appear to be competing for influence: the presidential family circle; senior officials within the Presidency; security and military elites; long-standing regime barons; and emerging political actors positioning for a post-Biya transition. The succession question has become the dominant strategic issue in Yaoundé.
Assessment: High Political Transition RiskDespite periodic military operations, separatist groups retain the ability to conduct attacks against security forces, government infrastructure and civilian targets. The conflict continues to undermine economic activity in the North-West and South-West while weakening state legitimacy in affected areas.
Risk: HighThe Far North continues to face threats linked to Boko Haram and affiliated extremist networks operating around the Lake Chad Basin. Although attack intensity has declined compared with previous years, the threat remains structural and persistent.
Risk: HighInternal stability: political tensions following recent elections, combined with succession uncertainty, increase the possibility of localized unrest, elite defections and institutional paralysis.
Cameroon's economy has shown resilience but remains constrained by structural weaknesses, declining oil revenues, fiscal pressures, infrastructure bottlenecks and political uncertainty. The IMF projects growth of roughly 3.3% in 2026, while flagging significant risks tied to security, debt and the regional environment. Major constraints include high youth unemployment and under-employment, weak industrial transformation, infrastructure deficits, governance challenges, limited access to finance, and security-related disruptions.
Economic Risk: HighThe regime manages to organize a gradual succession while preserving the cohesion of institutions and security forces.
Rivalries between clans and power networks intensify, causing prolonged political instability without institutional collapse.
A brutal or contested succession triggers a national political crisis accompanied by increased security tensions.
Cameroon's greatest vulnerability is no longer exclusively economic or security-related. The central strategic challenge has become political succession. The interaction between succession rivalries, unresolved security crises and economic stagnation creates a potentially destabilizing environment for 2026–2028.
Overall National Risk Rating: High